Liga Preview: Espanyol-Real Madrid

Real Madrid visit the Estadio Olimpco at Montjuic on Saturday to face struggling Espanyol knowing they are lame duck leaders of the Spanish league after the incredible finale of last Sunday night's summit meeting with Valencia.

Having been tactically outmanoeuvred and physically outfought, the champions had to rely on a dubious last-minute penalty award in front of the Spanish prime minister to snatch an undeserved draw and retain the league leadership.

Last week, I suggested that the game would have little impact on the final destination of the title race, other than to boost the morale of one side or the other ahead of the final stretch. Well, ironically, the manner of the draw last weekend may yet prove decisive. Valencia must pick their deflated spirits off the ground to face the other Catalan side, Barcelona, and try to believe that officialdom will not conspire with Madrid to deny them fair play and a fair shot at the championship. For Madrid, the game can only be seen as a great, fortunate escape.

However, they too may feel its impact in ways that were unforeseen last week. Could this finally be the wake up call they need to impose themselves on a championship they have scarcely dominated, especially away from home?

Zinedine Zidane may think so, having decided to extend his contract at the Bernabeu until 2007. His absence last weekend was keenly felt, yet I don't believe he would have made a telling difference to the outcome. Madrid had enough "Galacticos" on the pitch to win any game. The truth is, they just don't have enough honest water-carriers.

However, many in Spain believe they have the next best thing on their side – referees. The case for arguing that Valencia will win the title has been made here for weeks, and was vigorously extrapolated on Sunday. But football isn't just about ability, referees and luck can materially alter circumstances too. If Valencia recover from the sense of victimisation they have every right to feel, they will be greater champions than we think.

Another reason Valencia have this observer's vote for the title comes in the shape of Madrid's Champions League involvement which resumes on Tuesday evening with the eagerly-awaited grudge match in Bavaria against Bayern Munich. I've long felt this would be the defining match of Madrid's season, and now that it is almost upon us I sense the Spanish champions go into the two-legged clash as clearer favourites than when the draw was made. Bayern just haven't wintered well. A shabby restart in the Bundesliga has seen them drop nine points behind Werder Bremen, and it is clear that Oliver Kahn is not happy with the protection provided him by his defense.

Madrid have been steady and lucky. Valencia will hope their luck holds in the European arena and prolongs their involvement for a few more games at least.

If it does, Real will need to ensure they take the points on offer at Espanyol as a store for the hardships ahead. Espanyol, long the poor relations of Catalonia, have been abysmal this season. The 1988 UEFA Cup finalists have fallen away as a force in Spanish football since leaving the throbbing Sarria stadium for the chasm that is the Olimpico. Relegation was staring the budgies in the face prior to Christmas, but things have picked up enough to suggest they will at least put up a fight.

RECENT FORM

Three wins in the last six have given Espanyol the lifeline to contest the Spring with a reasonable chance of survival. However, back to back wins over Villarreal and Valladolid were followed last weekend by a 5-2 mauling at Malaga – hardly one of Spain's leading lights. Since taking over in November, Luis Fernandez has gradually shaped the team in his image, and all his grit will be required if Espanyol are to preserve their top-flight status- The champions may well have one eye on Tuesday night, and will be looking to stretch their unbeaten run to six. However, they have been vulnerable on the road and were last beaten in San Sebastian in January. Unbeaten at home with 10 wins from 11, Real Madrid will win or lose this championship race on their travels.

TEAM NEWS

Zinedine Zidane returns to the fray after suspension, but Carlos Queiroz may decide to rest a few players prior to the midweek game in Germany. It is precisely this scenario which leaves the champions open to complacency and distraction.

PROBABLE LINE-UPS

Espanyol: Lemmens, Tayfun, Lopo, Pochettino, Vignal, Wome, Morales, Maxi, De La Peña, Hadji, Tamudo.

Real Madrid: Casillas, Salgado, Helguera, Bravo, Roberto Carlos, Juanfran or Figo, Borja, Zidane, Solari, Raúl, Ronaldo.