History against Real for once as they prepare for Bayern

If Real Madrid beat Bayern Munich to reach the European Cup final on Wednesday they will become only the second club in the 46-year history of European soccer's premier competition to do so after losing 1-0 at home in the
first leg of the semifinals.

On four of the five previous occasions, the team that lost at home first were eliminated after the second leg. The only exceptions are Ajax Amsterdam, who lost 1-0 at home to Panathinaikos in 1996 but won the away leg 3-0 to reach the final where they eventually lost to Juventus on penalties.

For once, history is against the reigning European champions who have written so much of Europe's soccer history of their own over the past five decades. Not only do they have that semifinal trend against them, they are also facing one of the most formidable home records in Europe.

Bayern have lost just three of 74 home European Cup and Champions League games -- and have never lost at home in the competition by more than one goal. And despite having skipper Stefan Effenberg suspended and Mehmet Scholl a probable non-starter because of an ankle injury, Bayern are confident that after beating 1999 European Championships Manchester United in the quarter-finals they can now eliminate the champions of 2000.

"We've won a number of times this season when we've had to play without Stefan," said Bayern coach Ottmar Hitzfeld, whose team are looking to avenge their semifinal defeat to Real last season. Everyone's just going to have to give 10 percent more effort," he added.

Goalkeeper Oliver Kahn, who demoralised Madrid last week with a number of brilliant saves, said Effenberg's absence would have been more of a problem if Bayern had lost the first leg and needed a flood of goals in the home match. "Effenberg's absence would have been worse if we needed two or three goals," he said, adding Bayern were thriving on the frenzy of their simultaneous bid to win the Bundesliga for a third straight year.
"We love the pressure. Others are crushed by it."

But Hitzfeld, who was expected to play Swiss international Ciriaco Sforza in place of Effenberg, warned against complacency and said his team would not sit on its lead.

Clear strategy

The German champions warmed up for Madrid with a 1-0 win at Bayer Leverkusen on Saturday that kept them second behind Schalke 04 on goal difference with two matches to play. "It would be a fatal mistake to sit back and defend," Hitzfeld said. "We have a clear strategy. We need to score a goal or two to reach the final."

Real will have to break a run of five defeats in as many visits to the Olympic stadium if they are to reach their third final in four seasons. They lost 2-1 in last season's semifinal second leg, but it was a crucial away goal from Nicolas Anelka that provided them with their passport to the final.

This year only victory will do. Real have looked unconvincing in the league in recent weeks but they still enjoy an eight-point cushion at the top of the table despite their 3-0 defeat at Celta Vigo on Saturday. Coach Vicente Del Bosque's team were completely outclassed by the Galicians and seemed to have their minds fixed on Munich
rather than the prosaic surroundings of Vigo for most of the match. Real were lost without the stabilising presence of Fernando Hierro at the centre of defence and a tired-looking Luis Figo had an anonymous game in the midfield.

Real confident too

But Real are nothing if not confident and despite their failure to prise open the Bayern defence at the Bernabeu they still believe they can come away with the victory that will send them through to the final in Milan on May 23.

"No matter how much we think over the game at the Bernabeu we cannot change the result and now we need to enjoy the luck that deserted us at home," said Real captain Fernando Hierro, who will return to the team for the Bayern match. "I know we haven't won in Munich, but records are there to be broken and I think we can do it."

In the only change from the team that played in the first leg Del Bosque looks certain to use Fernando Morientes to partner Champions League top scorer Raul up front as they go in search of the all-important away goal.
The Real centre-forward decided to forego surgery on a persistent groin injury in order to help out his team mates in the run-in to the end of the season and trained on Monday.

Del Bosque will play his first choice combination of Steve McManaman, Luis Figo, Claude Makelele and the free-scoring Ivan Helguera in the midfield. He will also look to full back Roberto Carlos to make his trade-mark runs from the back.

Probable teams:

Bayern Munich:
1-Oliver Kahn (captain)
4-Sammy Kuffour
5-Patrik Andersson
25-Thomas Linke
2-Willy Sagnol
6-Jens Jeremies,
10-Ciriaco Sforza
3-Bixente Lizarazu
20-Hasan Salihamidzic
9-Elber
19-Carsten Jancker

Real Madrid:
25-Iker Casillas
2-Michel Salgado
18-Aitor Karanka
4-Fernando Hierro (captain)
3-Roberto Carlos
6-Ivan Helguera
24-Claude Makelele
10-Luis Figo
8-Steve McManaman;
7-Raul
9-Fernando Morientes

Referee: Kim Milton Nielsen (Denmark)